Comments on: A lost decade…are you sure? And, what’s in for 2010? http://www.moneyhoneyblog.com/a-lost-decade-are-you-sure-and-whats-in-for-2010/ There Is Nothing To Fear From Truth Wed, 21 Dec 2011 06:16:13 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Darvas boxes http://www.moneyhoneyblog.com/a-lost-decade-are-you-sure-and-whats-in-for-2010/comment-page-1/#comment-748 Darvas boxes Sun, 21 Feb 2010 17:06:56 +0000 http://www.moneyhoneyblog.com/?p=347#comment-748 Just wondering if any active traders are starting to trade the ETFs? After reading the book by Larry Connors - High Probability ETF Trading - I switched and I would say overall my results have improved but there are fewer trading opportunities because of the small number of ETFs he writes about. ETFs seem to be a little less erratic in their price movement so that's good but some of them have poor results using the systems he describes in the book. Just wondering if any active traders are starting to trade the ETFs? After reading the book by Larry Connors – High Probability ETF Trading – I switched and I would say overall my results have improved but there are fewer trading opportunities because of the small number of ETFs he writes about. ETFs seem to be a little less erratic in their price movement so that’s good but some of them have poor results using the systems he describes in the book.

]]> By: aetna quotes http://www.moneyhoneyblog.com/a-lost-decade-are-you-sure-and-whats-in-for-2010/comment-page-1/#comment-669 aetna quotes Tue, 16 Feb 2010 19:13:27 +0000 http://www.moneyhoneyblog.com/?p=347#comment-669 The US will not be far behind Britain in inflation. You can't keep printing money and borrowing money and not expect inflation to occcur. No solutions from Washington, as they are opposed ideologically, to doing what is needed, which is broad-based business tax cuts. The US will not be far behind Britain in inflation. You can’t keep printing money and borrowing money and not expect inflation to occcur. No solutions from Washington, as they are opposed ideologically, to doing what is needed, which is broad-based business tax cuts.

]]> By: manuel http://www.moneyhoneyblog.com/a-lost-decade-are-you-sure-and-whats-in-for-2010/comment-page-1/#comment-126 manuel Mon, 11 Jan 2010 16:29:23 +0000 http://www.moneyhoneyblog.com/?p=347#comment-126 January 11, 2010 IN TODAY'S EDITION OF BREAKFAST WITH DAVE • Market thoughts to start off the week — the risk trade is back big time • From the sublime to the ridiculous — this continues to be the Houdini market; it goes up on any news, good or bad • One overvalued market — on a normalized Shiller P/E basis, the S&P 500 is currently overvalued by 27% • Fiscal drag? U.S. states were forced to cut spending by 5.4% last year and not even that closed the massive fiscal gap caused by a record 12.5% slide in the revenue base • An ongoing credit contraction in the U.S. — consumer credit plunged a record $17.5 billion in November • Shortage of income — as we saw in last Friday’s average hourly earnings data, there is precious little income growth to be found in the labour market • Holiday shopping in the U.S. came in better than expected • U.S. commercial real estate in a deep funk January 11, 2010

IN TODAY’S EDITION OF BREAKFAST WITH DAVE

• Market thoughts to start off the week — the risk trade is back big time

• From the sublime to the ridiculous — this continues to be the Houdini market; it goes up on any news, good or bad

• One overvalued market — on a normalized Shiller P/E basis, the S&P 500 is currently overvalued by 27%

• Fiscal drag? U.S. states were forced to cut spending by 5.4% last year and not even that closed the massive fiscal gap caused by a record 12.5% slide in the revenue base

• An ongoing credit contraction in the U.S. — consumer credit plunged a record $17.5 billion in November

• Shortage of income — as we saw in last Friday’s average hourly earnings data, there is precious little income growth to be found in the labour market

• Holiday shopping in the U.S. came in better than expected

• U.S. commercial real estate in a deep funk

]]> By: Yieldpig http://www.moneyhoneyblog.com/a-lost-decade-are-you-sure-and-whats-in-for-2010/comment-page-1/#comment-91 Yieldpig Fri, 08 Jan 2010 20:37:59 +0000 http://www.moneyhoneyblog.com/?p=347#comment-91 Something is only as lost as you allow it to be. Yes..it was a fairly awful decade. But, you can always find decent stuff to buy if you scrounge around enough. .-= Yieldpig´s last blog ..<a href="http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/Yieldpig/~3/fN7p5NnPG0Q/you-say-you-want-resolution.html" rel="nofollow">You say you want a resolution...</a> =-. Something is only as lost as you allow it to be. Yes..it was a fairly awful decade. But, you can always find decent stuff to buy if you scrounge around enough.
.-= Yieldpig´s last blog ..You say you want a resolution… =-.

]]> By: goldstandard http://www.moneyhoneyblog.com/a-lost-decade-are-you-sure-and-whats-in-for-2010/comment-page-1/#comment-84 goldstandard Fri, 08 Jan 2010 16:48:46 +0000 http://www.moneyhoneyblog.com/?p=347#comment-84 Hi Petra, I am referring to the chart that you share: http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2010/01/02/business/economy/02chartsGrfx.html showing 0.2% annual yiel for developed markets (equals more or less US markets). My point is: in the US, people expect dividends on regular basis, so I guess dividend payments are higher there than elsewher. But do not have any numbers to prove it. Have a nice day, G. Hi Petra, I am referring to the chart that you share: http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2010/01/02/business/economy/02chartsGrfx.html

showing 0.2% annual yiel for developed markets (equals more or less US markets).
My point is: in the US, people expect dividends on regular basis, so I guess dividend payments are higher there than elsewher. But do not have any numbers to prove it. Have a nice day, G.

]]> By: manuel http://www.moneyhoneyblog.com/a-lost-decade-are-you-sure-and-whats-in-for-2010/comment-page-1/#comment-75 manuel Wed, 06 Jan 2010 18:14:13 +0000 http://www.moneyhoneyblog.com/?p=347#comment-75 May be you are right, well in october it had 100 P/E on a trailing basis, now I do not know...... This is from September, the Market continued the RallY and I do not really know what earnings did, Rosenberg still is Prudent, you should consider subscribing to his newsletter(its free), I consider it the Best (David Rosenberg at Gluskin Sheff)...... articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/Extra/caution-this-rally-is-out-of-hand.aspx here is some of Rosenberg: seekingalpha.com/instablog/3452-scott-s-investments/12210-rosenberg-market-not-cheap-treasuries-could-rally May be you are right, well in october it had 100 P/E on a trailing basis, now I do not know……

This is from September, the Market continued the RallY and I do not really know what earnings did, Rosenberg still is Prudent, you should consider subscribing to his newsletter(its free), I consider it the Best (David Rosenberg at Gluskin Sheff)……

articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/Extra/caution-this-rally-is-out-of-hand.aspx

here is some of Rosenberg:

seekingalpha.com/instablog/3452-scott-s-investments/12210-rosenberg-market-not-cheap-treasuries-could-rally

]]> By: Petra http://www.moneyhoneyblog.com/a-lost-decade-are-you-sure-and-whats-in-for-2010/comment-page-1/#comment-71 Petra Wed, 06 Jan 2010 01:50:52 +0000 http://www.moneyhoneyblog.com/?p=347#comment-71 Manuel, I'm not sure where you've got your figures of trailing P/E over 100 and 40, resp. S&P 500's P/E is around 20 at the end of 2009 (on operating basis). Let's not forget that those multiples are against extremely depressed earnings. P/E on a forward basis, with current forecasts for 2010 earnings, comes to about 15 (as compared to the historical average of 15.7). The Wall Street Journal predicts S&P 500 earnings growth of 21%-30% in 2010, which may not be too optimistic given the very low levels of 2009. Goldstandard - which chart are you referring to? I haven't seen any showing 2% gain on US equities in the last decade... Manuel, I’m not sure where you’ve got your figures of trailing P/E over 100 and 40, resp. S&P 500′s P/E is around 20 at the end of 2009 (on operating basis). Let’s not forget that those multiples are against extremely depressed earnings. P/E on a forward basis, with current forecasts for 2010 earnings, comes to about 15 (as compared to the historical average of 15.7). The Wall Street Journal predicts S&P 500 earnings growth of 21%-30% in 2010, which may not be too optimistic given the very low levels of 2009.

Goldstandard – which chart are you referring to? I haven’t seen any showing 2% gain on US equities in the last decade…

]]> By: goldstandard http://www.moneyhoneyblog.com/a-lost-decade-are-you-sure-and-whats-in-for-2010/comment-page-1/#comment-69 goldstandard Mon, 04 Jan 2010 20:31:02 +0000 http://www.moneyhoneyblog.com/?p=347#comment-69 HI Petra, just a short comment. The chart showing 2% gain of US equities over the last decade does not consider dividends reinvested. HI Petra, just a short comment. The chart showing 2% gain of US equities over the last decade does not consider dividends reinvested.

]]> By: manuel http://www.moneyhoneyblog.com/a-lost-decade-are-you-sure-and-whats-in-for-2010/comment-page-1/#comment-68 manuel Mon, 04 Jan 2010 19:25:04 +0000 http://www.moneyhoneyblog.com/?p=347#comment-68 the Market is verY overvalued on a P/E Basis, S&P is at P/E of over100 on a trailing Earnings basis, around 40 on operating earnings and over the average forward P/E, Schillers P/E10 is also in an overvalued stage, so earnings have to catch up significantly, I would be very prudent for 2010...... the Market is verY overvalued on a P/E Basis, S&P is at P/E of over100 on a trailing Earnings basis, around 40 on operating earnings and over the average forward P/E, Schillers P/E10 is also in an overvalued stage, so earnings have to catch up significantly, I would be very prudent for 2010……

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